[Baidu] Sales comparison with Naver, target price of $500 within 3 years(English)

1. Baidu 2019 sales of 107,413,000,000 dollars (118.68 trillion 69.6 million won) / Naver 2019 sales of 5,963,990,079dollars (6.593.4 billion won)

출처: www.edaily.co.kr/news/read?newsId=01571126625642968

네이버, 2019년 매출 6조5934억…사상 첫 6조 돌파(상보)

출처: ir.baidu.com/financial-reports/

Financial Reports | Baidu Inc

About 20 times difference in sales / 2 times difference in market capitalization. At this level, it is confused whether Naver is overvalued or Baidu is undervalued.

 

2. Even Naver's autonomous driving technology doesn't even make it into the world rankings, while Baidu ranks fourth, ahead of Tesla Auto Pilot's original Mobil Eye.

 

3. Considering that Mobileye was acquired by Intel for 17 trillion won ($15 billion) in 2017 (with tiny sales), Baidu's market cap, which is evaluated only by sales, is about $57,890,521,600, But Naver does not include self-driving-related valuations in its market cap due to lack of technology. Assuming that there is almost no stake in autonomous driving technology in the total amount, Naver's $43,417,891,200 is an overvalued price. (For reference, Waymo's market capitalization was $10,854,472 as estimated by JP Morgan.)

출처: www.mk.co.kr/news/it/view/2020/03/243487/

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 4. Recently, a joint venture between Baidu and Geely is attracting attention, and a similar company is Canoo. The Canoo market cap is about $3,618,157,600. (In the case of Canoo, there is no actual mass-produced car, so it is an undervalued atmosphere.)

출처:www.asiatime.co.kr/news/newsview.php?ncode=1065602478846055

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5. Nio's cumulative sales volume is about 15,000 units, and Baidu's joint venture is expected to have at least this sales volume. Nio's market cap is $68,744,994,400. The sales are about $81,447,963

출처:www.autodaily.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=421940

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6. Conclusion: The target price within 3 years is at least $500, even if calculated very conservatively, since it is very undervalued in terms of sales and there is a possibility that it will more than double in terms of self-driving technology or the establishment of a joint venture.

 

7. Positive scenario

-Add $68,744,994,400 in market capitalization due to the establishment of an electric vehicle joint venture

-Add $578,905,216,000 in market cap when receiving market evaluation at Naver's level compared to sales

-An additional $108,544,728,000 in market capitalization when autonomous driving technology advances over Google's Waymo

-Final market capitalization of $756,194,938,400 within 5 years, target price of 2,500 dollars