Fundamentals of long-term investment

In fact, the basis of long-term investment depends on how outstanding the company's growth, competitive advantage, and sustainability of competitive advantage are. And the specific gravity is adjusted according to the degree of this. If the growth is very good, the competitive advantage is ambiguous. In my case, companies like Palantier and Schrödinger did that. It is ambiguous. In fact, it seems appropriate to say that you are not sure. Then, it is correct to go with a proportion of less than 5%. And if too many periods are needed to get the business model to work properly, the weight should definitely be reduced. Tesla is confident that it outperforms other competitors in that respect. So, you can put a high weight and put a large seed.

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In fact, none of the companies in the sector have an understanding of the devices and technologies that can run AI flywheels properly, except Tesla. This alone can give you an overwhelming competitive advantage. And the growth of deep learning is exponential. I think this will bring net software profits of over $10,000 per unit in the future. It is not known when this will be, but if 10 million units are sold, it is a profit of 100B. This means that it is a company that can have a market cap of 3T by giving multiples of 300,000. Apple, the number one company in the market cap, is making only about 60B of profits.

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Of course, you have to endure the various noises generated in this process. If Tesla makes a profit of 100B... will it be affected by interest rates then? In the end, the value of a company converges on the size of the present profit and the growth of the future profit. In the process, there will be variables caused by numerous macro events, and there is also noise from individual companies. In this case, 30-40% of MDD is easily generated. After all, the question is how much time span you invest. Two problems arise in this respect.

-It is money that you do not need to use for at least 3 years.

-It is a debt that does not have to be repaid for at least 3 years.

 

If only the two above are observed, there is actually no reason to buy or sell a company with a long-term competitive advantage. Of course, there will be ways to make money in every aspect. In the recent financial market, such as the incorporation of secrets... Such a method is very good. However, it is not easy to have a deep understanding of every aspect. In particular, if you are an office worker, you will be chasing here and there, and you will only accumulate losses. If you focus on companies you know well, but manage risk and debt without trading, the rate of return is likely to be higher than you think. Of course, that time may be a bit long. People usually do that because of greed, because they want to make 100% profit in three months, or because they want to make money in six months. How difficult is it to fully understand that and have the right assets in the right phase?

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However, from now on, if you have a little cash, you will need to be more cautious about the opportunity to incorporate remarkably undervalued assets. For example, rather than investing bitcoin at 70 million won, it was more carefully included at the beginning of 50 million won... Or maybe Tesla was not at the level of 600 dollars, but at the MDD 40% of 540 dollars, etc. It seems good to look for a place where you can eat more clearly. In fact, bitcoin still looks good now, but I think it's better to wait for a position that looks more obvious. So focus on Tesla, but my idea is to wait for a spot where the other assets seem obvious.

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Finally, Tesla's AI is definitely undervalued. I think it will produce results in a much faster time than we think. Singularity is not far. Are we ready to embrace AI with common sense right now? Surprise comes from this.

 

출처: blog.naver.com/wjsmug/222347674041