[Luminar Technologies] Analysis of target price of $1,000 after 3 years(English)

1. luckily, Geely Motors is a joint venture company with Baidu. It is a company that owns 100% of Volvo Cars. The problem is that Baidu uses Velodyne and Volvo Cars uses Luminar. It will probably be selected based on performance and market competitiveness, but it seems like it has already been decided which lidar to use.

Geely's market share in China is 23%, the average monthly car sales in China is 2.5 million, and the monthly average is 570,000. Lumina is delivered for $500 each lidar. We can assume that monthly sales of $285 million are generated.

 

Conclusion: Annual sales of $3.42 billion ($3,420,000,000)

 

2. Let's take a look at the sales through Volvo Cars, a reliable customer. From January to November 2020, Volvo cars sold 660,000 units.

출처:global-autonews.com/bbs/board.php?bo_table=bd_001&wr_id=27789

볼보, 2020년 11월까지 글로벌 판매대수 6.2% 감소 > | 완성차뉴스 | 글로벌오토뉴스

The number of units sold in December was not counted, but it is calculated excluding it.

 

Conclusion: $330 million in sales ($330,000,000)

 

3. Daimler truck sales, another reliable customer. It is estimated that there are roughly two or more lidar sensors in a Daimler truck. Suppose you have roughly two. Daimler trucks sold 440,000 units in 2020.

출처: www.cvinfo.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=12247

다임러트럭, 불황 불구 북미시장 판매 14% 증가 - 상용차신문

Also, December is not counted.

 

Conclusion: $440 million in sales ($440,000,000)

 

4. Recently, Tesla is often seen wearing a lidar and experimenting. It seems that there is not much time left to install Luminar's Lidar. It is clear that Elon will choose Luminar if it is not marketability but also secures safety. Tesla is based on S&P's projected sales for 2021, Sales are too low at present

출처: www.donga.com/news/Economy/article/all/20201014/103405429/1

S&P “테슬라, 내년 판매량 80만대 넘어설것”

It is a product that can't be bought because it doesn't have Tesla anyway, so it counts as 800,000 units.

 

Conclusion: 400 million sales ($400,000,000)

 

5. The sales from only the lidar installed on the vehicle is 4,590,000,000 dollars (5,30.6 trillion won). With this much, I cannot explain the stock price right now. When you search for a company with 4,590,000,000 dollars sales in Google, the market capitalization of Shinsegae(retail company in korea) is $2,000,000,000 (of course, it is not meaningful because the industry is different. I wrote it down to help you understand.) On the other hand, Lumina is currently $10,641,305,000

 

6. Let's look at the software side. At this point, Lumina is the only company that can supply LiDAR core software. Assuming that the core software is the position of the game engine in the game, the recently listed unity's sales are $351.3 million (4172 billion won). It was counted as 1.5 million users.

출처:it.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2020/08/26/2020082601106.html

IPO 앞둔 유니티, 2020 상반기 영업손실 643억원

On the other hand, Lumina's expected number of customers is the same as the expected number of units sold. 8.74 million units. Unity seems to generate $2,342,000 in sales per 10,000 people. Applying the same method, sales of $2,046,908,000 will be generated. Combined with all sales, this is similar to that of Intel in 2005, and Intel's market capitalization at that time was $145.9 billion.

At the time of the Cantillon effect as it is now, it is important to consider the asset value being overvalued above the inflation rate.

 

7. As the most positive scenario goes, there is about 15x upside potential in sales alone. Here, if industry standards are established (like Google's Android) and market dominance based on monopoly status by technology gap is reflected in the stock price, 1,000 dollars is not too much.

 

 Since it is a subscription economy, if it is assumed that it is a yearly subscription, it is accumulated every year. (It's a bit expensive to run on a monthly basis, so it's probably going to be one year.) In other words, even conservatively looking at the sales of lidar that will be installed in general vehicles, sales are accumulated every year by $6,636,908,000. If the scale is continuously accumulated and expanded from the point when the scale is achieved, the scale of sales is likely to increase by 50% or more per year.

 In the case of Netflix, a representative subscription economy, on average, sales growth was 30-40%. However, since cars are a Essential goods, costomer have a higher chance of maintaining their subscription. Also, in the case of Netflix, the growth rate declined due to the rise of competitors, while Lumina is highly likely to maintain this growth rate because there is a technology barrier.