20210302 미국 경제 상황(US economic situation)

1. A short-term decline

It was questioned whether the Feb would tolerate a rise in nominal interest rates. So I decided to take a conservative perspective.

 

2. Historical record for the NASDAQ index

The market crash is not a day or two. You can see it by looking at the history.

-The 5% drop happens really frequently.

-The 20% decline is quite happening.

-A 30% decline occurs once every 10 years. (No back to back in history)

-Statistically, there should be no 30% decline in the next 10 years. (Tesla MDD -60% occurs at an index of -30%)

 

3. Long-term rise

Whether it occurs in the process of improving the economy or the reasons for supply and demand in the market, the rise in the current nominal interest rate is natural, and growth stocks are still expected to outperform the S&P index. No matter how much the nominal interest rate has risen, the interest rate is still very low, and the market is full of liquidity. The 1.9T funds expected to pass on March 14 will also flow into the market.

출처: blog.naver.com/wjsmug/222261836533